Polipicks

Every even year for some time I've made a handful of political picks in certain races. Mainly these are just bets I make with myself and I don't often mention them to others. But I figure I'll put them here this year so that I can't pretend I picked any upsets I don't actually pick, and so that you can all laugh along with me when we see how far off I am on Wednesday morning.

I would consider this post more under the heading of "gambling/parlor games" than actual politics, since these picks are not based on my own personal leanings. However, in keeping with my no-political-content policy, I am not posting my reasoning behind these picks; rest assured I have some and am not just throwing darts (although that might be more accurate).

To give you some idea of my record, in 1998 I called Jesse Ventura in Minnesota and said Howard Dean would run for president in 2004. In 2000 I called Bush for president, but also said Ralph Nader would take at least 5% and guarantee the Green Party nationwide ballot access and a spot in the prez debates in 2004. In 2004 Senate races, I said Mel Martinez would lose in Florida (I was wrong and I've forgotten who his opponent was) and Inez Tenenbaum would beat Jim DeMint in South Carolina. I've gotten progressively worse as time has gone on, so this should be an interesting batch of picks.

1. U.S. House, Louisiana, District 2

The incumbent is democrat Bill Jefferson, the fellow who had $90k in bribe money stashed in his freezer when the feds raided his office earlier this year.

I predict Jefferson will finish in second place but force a runoff. I also predict he will win the runoff in December.


2. U.S. House, Texas, District 22

The incumbent is republican Tom Delay, who is barred from running again because he says he moved to Virginia, but didn't say so in time to get his name taken off the ballot, so the GOP candidate is a write-in.

I predict Nick Lampson, the democrat, will win by 2-5% against GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. I also predict he will only get one term.


3. U.S. House, Florida, District 16

The incumbent—-well, not anymore—-is Mark Foley. His name is still on the ballot, and to vote for state rep Joe Negron, the GOP's replacement candidate, voters will have to mark the box by Foley's name; write-ins will not be counted.

I predict the democratic candidate, Tim Mahoney, will win by 3-5% of the vote.


4. U.S. House, Florida, District 9

The incumbent, who is retiring this year, is Gus or Mike Bilirakis, whichever one is the father.

I predict Gus or Mike Bilirakis, whichever one is the son, will win by 8% despite high democratic hopes.


5. U.S. House, Florida, District 13

The incumbent is republican Katherine Harris, who is running for the Senate this year.

I predict democrat Christine Jennings will win by 4-6%, and will be re-elected in 2008, and will swiftly enter the democratic leadership (by 2009). (No, I don't know her personally and I did not donate to her campaign.)


6. Florida Statewide Races

Governor: Charlie Crist, the republican, will win in a walk, by at least 8 points.

CFO: Alex Sink, the democrat, will win by 4-6%.

Atty Gen: Skip Campbell, the democrat, will win by 2-3%.

U.S. Senate: Bill Nelson will best Katherine Harris by 17-19 points; he will not hold her below 40% of the vote.

Agriculture Commish: Republican Charlie Bronson by 20+.

7. Hillsborough County Commission At Large District 5

Jim Norman is the incumbent. Norman faces an independent candidate, Yamel Arronte, whom no one takes seriously, and democrat strip-club/fitness center magnate Joe Redner, whom no one takes seriously. Jim Norman will win, but the other two candidates will have a higher combined vote total by more than twenty points (i.e. Norman gets less than 40%).

8. Hot Senate Races

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) by 4

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D) by 7

New Jersey: Bob Menendez (D) by 4; also Menendez will not serve a full term

Maryland: Michael Steele (R) by 3; also he will not be re-elected in 2012

Virginia: George Allen (R) by 2; also he will retire in 2012

Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) by 5

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) by 10

Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) by less than 1; recount and lawsuit to follow

Montana: John Tester (D) by 5

Assuming no upsets in other races, this amounts to a net gain of four for the Ds, so the GOP retains control of the Senate.

Hey, a lot of people make picks every Saturday and Sunday on football games and so forth. I don't know too much about football (although, ahem, I am beating Mike Golic in ESPN College Pick 'Em), so I make picks in politics. The principle's the same.