07 November 2006

Smitty's Polipicks Scorecard

Well, I said I'd edit this post, so I have. This is as of Thursday at 1900 local.

So. The picks were:

LA 2 - Jefferson in second place
TX 22 - Lampson wins, by 2-5
FL 16 - Mahoney wins, by 3-5
FL 9 - Bilirakis wins, by 8
FL 13 - Jennings wins, by 4-6
FL Guv - Crist wins, by 8+
FL AG - Campbell wins, by 2-3
FL CFO - Sink wins, by 4-6
FL Ag Commish - Bronson wins, by 20+
Hills Commish - Norman wins, with less than 40%
FL Sen - Nelson wins, Harris makes 40%+
RI Sen - Whitehouse, by 4
PA Sen - Casey, by 7
NJ Sen - Menendez, by 4
MD Sen - Steele, by 3
VA Sen - Allen, by 2
TN Sen - Corker, by 5
OH Sen - Brown, by 10
MO Sen - McCaskill, by less than 1
MT Sen - Tester, by 5
Dems gain 4 Senate seats
GOP retains control of Senate.

Okay, so how'd I do? I score one point for a correct call, minus one for an incorrect call. Plus one if I get the score exactly right, minus one if I'm more than four points off, no score otherwise.

In LA-2, Bill Jefferson came through in first place. Minus one.
In TX-22, Nick Lampson won by 10 points with over 50%. Plus one for the call, minus one for underestimating the size of the victory. -1 overall.
In FL-16, Tim Mahoney won by one point. Score one for the win. 0 overall.
In FL-9, Gus Bilirakis won by 12. Score one for the win. +1 overall.
In FL-13, Vern Buchanan seems to have won, although there will be a recount. Assuming his win holds, that's minus 2. -1 overall.
In the FL Guv race, Crist won by 7. So close. 0 overall.
In the FL AG race Bill McCollum won by more than 2. -2 overall.
In the FL CFO race, Alex Sink won by 8. -1 overall.
In the FL Ag Commish race, Charlie Bronson won by 13 (far less than 20). -3 overall.
In the Hillsborough Commission District 7 race, Jim Norman has won but got more than 50% of the vote. -3 overall.
In the FL Senate race, Bill Nelson won (+1), by 22 points (+0), and held Krazy Kat to under 40% (-1). -3 overall.
In the RI Senate race, Whitehouse won by six. -2.
In the PA Senate race, Casey won by 18. -2.
In the NJ Senate race, Menendez won by 8. -1.
In the MD Senate race, Cardin won. -3.
In the VA Senate race, Webb won. -5
In the TN Senate race, Corker won by 3. -4.
In the OH Senate race, Brown won by 12. -3.
In the MO Senate race, McCaskill won by 1. -1.
In the MT Senate race, Tester won by 1. 0.
So I'm net zero, not bad, really, considering I lost most of those points for getting the margin of victory wrong and not for the actual pick. Of course, add in the fact that the Dems gained 6 seats (probably; there's always the chance of a recount but Webb is ahead by 7000 votes) and took control of the Senate, and I'd be at -2. Not very good.

Still, imagine if you'd bet against the house!
And, just so I can feel a little better about myself... if I didn't score the margin of victory at all, I'd actually be +10 for races, and +6 taking into account the control of the Senate, the Hillsborough county race, and Harris being kept under 40%.


Smittygirl said...

Oh, honey, you are nuts!
(Part of why I love you so much.)
I can't wait to see how this all shakes out. It's 11:48 right now, so we'll see how you (and the country) did come tomorrow morning.
(Or good morning, for you!)

Anonymous said...

Smitty, you have seen tradesports.com haven't you? It's like a stock exchange, but it's politics instead of businesses.

Spencer Batchelder said...

You should check out http://www.fantasycongress.us/fc/ if this is something that really interests you.....