07 November 2006

Smitty's Polipicks Scorecard

Well, I said I'd edit this post, so I have. This is as of Thursday at 1900 local.

So. The picks were:

LA 2 - Jefferson in second place
TX 22 - Lampson wins, by 2-5
FL 16 - Mahoney wins, by 3-5
FL 9 - Bilirakis wins, by 8
FL 13 - Jennings wins, by 4-6
FL Guv - Crist wins, by 8+
FL AG - Campbell wins, by 2-3
FL CFO - Sink wins, by 4-6
FL Ag Commish - Bronson wins, by 20+
Hills Commish - Norman wins, with less than 40%
FL Sen - Nelson wins, Harris makes 40%+
RI Sen - Whitehouse, by 4
PA Sen - Casey, by 7
NJ Sen - Menendez, by 4
MD Sen - Steele, by 3
VA Sen - Allen, by 2
TN Sen - Corker, by 5
OH Sen - Brown, by 10
MO Sen - McCaskill, by less than 1
MT Sen - Tester, by 5
Dems gain 4 Senate seats
GOP retains control of Senate.

Okay, so how'd I do? I score one point for a correct call, minus one for an incorrect call. Plus one if I get the score exactly right, minus one if I'm more than four points off, no score otherwise.

In LA-2, Bill Jefferson came through in first place. Minus one.
In TX-22, Nick Lampson won by 10 points with over 50%. Plus one for the call, minus one for underestimating the size of the victory. -1 overall.
In FL-16, Tim Mahoney won by one point. Score one for the win. 0 overall.
In FL-9, Gus Bilirakis won by 12. Score one for the win. +1 overall.
In FL-13, Vern Buchanan seems to have won, although there will be a recount. Assuming his win holds, that's minus 2. -1 overall.
In the FL Guv race, Crist won by 7. So close. 0 overall.
In the FL AG race Bill McCollum won by more than 2. -2 overall.
In the FL CFO race, Alex Sink won by 8. -1 overall.
In the FL Ag Commish race, Charlie Bronson won by 13 (far less than 20). -3 overall.
In the Hillsborough Commission District 7 race, Jim Norman has won but got more than 50% of the vote. -3 overall.
In the FL Senate race, Bill Nelson won (+1), by 22 points (+0), and held Krazy Kat to under 40% (-1). -3 overall.
In the RI Senate race, Whitehouse won by six. -2.
In the PA Senate race, Casey won by 18. -2.
In the NJ Senate race, Menendez won by 8. -1.
In the MD Senate race, Cardin won. -3.
In the VA Senate race, Webb won. -5
In the TN Senate race, Corker won by 3. -4.
In the OH Senate race, Brown won by 12. -3.
In the MO Senate race, McCaskill won by 1. -1.
In the MT Senate race, Tester won by 1. 0.
So I'm net zero, not bad, really, considering I lost most of those points for getting the margin of victory wrong and not for the actual pick. Of course, add in the fact that the Dems gained 6 seats (probably; there's always the chance of a recount but Webb is ahead by 7000 votes) and took control of the Senate, and I'd be at -2. Not very good.

Still, imagine if you'd bet against the house!
And, just so I can feel a little better about myself... if I didn't score the margin of victory at all, I'd actually be +10 for races, and +6 taking into account the control of the Senate, the Hillsborough county race, and Harris being kept under 40%.

3 comments:

Smittygirl said...

Oh, honey, you are nuts!
(Part of why I love you so much.)
I can't wait to see how this all shakes out. It's 11:48 right now, so we'll see how you (and the country) did come tomorrow morning.
Goodnight!
(Or good morning, for you!)

Anonymous said...

Smitty, you have seen tradesports.com haven't you? It's like a stock exchange, but it's politics instead of businesses.

Spencer Batchelder said...

You should check out http://www.fantasycongress.us/fc/ if this is something that really interests you.....