Ah, the Senate. Supposedly the "deliberative" body of Congress, responsible for approving judicial nominees, home of the filibuster, and of people like Robert Byrd who've been there for so long more than half of their constituents were born after they started serving. Damn.
Presently, the Senate has 49 Dems, 49 GOPers, and two independents who usually caucus with the Dems (although don't bet on what Joe Lieberman might do; I won't include him in the Dem figures, but I will include Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who is a near-certain Dem vote on most issues). Normally there would be 33 seats up for election this year, but in Wyoming and Mississippi, sitting Senators either passed away (WY) or resigned (MS) and replacements were appointed by the governor, necessitating new elections. Consequently there are 35 seats in play this year, 12 of which are held by Democrats and 23 by Republicans. Six are open.
Of the 29 incumbents running for re-election, the following are certain to hold their seats:
Alabama – Jeff Sessions, R
Arkansas – David Pryor, D
Delaware – Joe Biden, D
Iowa – Tom Harkin, D
Illinois – Dick Durbin, D
Kansas – Pat Roberts, R
Maine – Susan Collins, R
Massachusetts – John Kerry, D
Michigan – Carl Levin, D
Mississippi – Thad Cochran, R
Montana – Max Baucus, D
New Jersey – Frank Lautenberg, D
Oklahoma – James Inhofe, R
Rhode Island – Jack Reed, D
South Dakota – Tim Johnson, D
South Carolina – Lindsay Graham, R
Tennessee – Lamar Alexander, R
Texas – John Cornyn, R
West Virginia – Jay Rockefeller, D
Wyoming – Mike Enzi, R
Wyoming – John Barrasso, R
Taking into account the current makeup of the Senate (including seats not in play this year) and the sure-bet incumbents, we have a Senate makeup of 48 Ds, 36 Rs, and the 2 Is; I'll call that a 49-36-1 split. That's a tough road for the GOP to travel, and they're not going to keep the Senate as close as it is right now.
Of the open seats (ID, CO, NM, NE, VA, MN), four of them appear to be in the bag: Idaho and Nebraska will elect new GOP Senators (Jim Risch and Mike Johanns respectively) (49-38-1), while Virginia will elect Mark Warner and New Mexico will elect Tom Udall, and both seats will flip from GOP to Dem (51-38-1). So control of the Senate is effectively already guaranteed for the Democrats. The question has been, can they get to 60 seats and ensure a filibuster-proof majority. So the remaning ten seats are the ones you want to watch. Three are likely GOP victories (GA, KY, MS). Three are likely Dem victories (NH, LA, CO). The other four are real tossups and anybody could win (NC, MN, OR, AK). I'll break them down poll closing time:
Georgia: Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would win easily in any normal year, but this isn't normal. Chambliss leads by a point or two in recent polls, but turnout will be key. If Martin loses but keeps Chambliss under 50%, the two will face a run-off. If Martin wins this race, it's a runaway night for the Democrats. That said, this race could be one of the closest of the night, so don't expect it to be an early call and a clear indicator of trends.
Kentucky: Incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell should win this race, but challenger Bruce Lunsford has outperformed everyone's expectations. Polls are mixed and turnout will be a factor, but no poll has showed Lunsford in the lead yet. Obama is performing poorly in the state and will have no coattails to speak of, so Lunsford must count on depressed GOP turnout and an anti-Republican and anti-incumbent wave that has not yet materialized in Kentucky. The polling shows a very tight race but don't be surprised if this one goes to McConnell by five to ten points; a Lunsford victory implies a Democratic tsunami.
New Hampshire: Incumbent Republican John Sununu seems unlikely to hold on to his seat against popular former governor Jeanne Shaheen. Polling over the past two months puts Shaheen ahead by about seven points with little change in the race. You could actually argue that Shaheen is underperforming (polls last year had her up by 20 points) but the seat seems safe for her nonetheless. Should she lose this race, the notion of a "Democratic Wave" will be bunk, and everything will be up for grabs.
Mississippi: Don't be confused when you see Thad Cochran win re-election here by 30+ points; it's the seat formerly occupied by Trent Lott that's a real contest. Lott retired last year, dissatisfied with life in the Senate and eager to return home to a still-Katrina-ravaged house, and his seat was filled by former Congressman Roger Wicker, R. Wicker hasn't had much time to ingratiate himself with the rest of the state outside his former district, and faces a stiff challenge from former governor Ronnie Musgrove. Musgrove could be leading this race now and it's tough to say why he isn't; of the three likely GOP victories among these ten seats, this one makes the least sense to me. Musgrove should be barely ahead, really. Polling has been thin (four since September 1, fewer than landslide states like Michigan and Massachusetts) and, with one exception, shows a race within two points. The state is a sure thing for McCain and to some degree Musgrove is relying on a large black turnout for Obama who will support him as well; that could be dangerous in a state that's not a real contest and where black turnout is historically lower than in other Southern states. This is one of the ones I'll really be watching; if it's a big Dem year Musgrove should win it, but if Wicker keeps the seat it can't be considered a surprise. The only surprise would be a ten point margin for either side. This race will be very close.
North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is in a near-tossup race with challenger Kay Hagan. Recent polling averages put Hagan slightly ahead, but the race is close and both candidates still have money to spend. Turnout will be huge (it's supposed to rain on Tuesday), and it's tough to say whether this race or the Presidential race will be clear first; for my money, it's unlikely the two races will be split. Advertising, which we unfortunately get to watch here in SC, has turned incredibly nasty of late (mostly on Dole's part), so it could be interesting to see whether that has any effect on either turnout or the eventual victor. But I expect this race to go on long past the 8:30 closing time.
Louisiana: Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu is the only Dem incumbent who could lose her seat. I say "could," but really, it seems pretty unlikely now. The GOP targeted the race earlier this year and it seemed close, but in the last few weeks the GOP has pulled ad money from their candidate in the face of polling showing Landrieu with a 10+ point margin. Still, Louisiana has lost a lot of its Democratic population and Landrieu shouldn't be considered a sure thing. If she loses, it's likely already been a pretty good night for the GOP, but this is still one to watch.
Minnesota: Don't believe anything about this race until the votes are counted. Minnesota has the strongest third party in the entire country, the Independence party (which refers to being independent of the two other parties, not a preference for an independent Minnesota), built largely by Jesse Ventura. The Independence candidate, Dean Barkley, has already been a Senator once before (for about two months after Paul Wellstone's death) and is polling at 15%. Tellingly, his support has grown substantially in just the past two months—just like Jesse Ventura's did when he ran for governor in 1998. The incumbent, Norm Coleman (R), polls within a point or two of Democratic challenger Al Franken—the one from Saturday Night Live. Franken could have this thing in the bag by now if he wasn't Al Franken, but he is prickly and cold, bland on the stump and unimpressive in small groups. In short, Franken is a lousy candidate being buoyed by a good Democratic year and discontent with the incumbent. In most states, we'd assume the 15% support for the third party candidate would diminish by election day, but this is Minnesota and it's not impossible that Franken could turn off enough people to lose this. The question would be, could Barkley sneak in and win? Remember, Jesse Ventura was behind in the polls by ten percent or more on election day 1998. Undecideds broke for Ventura, and people who were uncomfortable with their choices from the other two parties did the same. This is exactly the same situation we have here: Coleman isn't even all that popular with Republicans in the state, and Franken isn't exactly loved by anyone but dedicated Air America Radio listeners (of which there are about three dozen nationwide). The two parties have dumped money into the race to tear down the two candidates, while Barkley's ads have relied on the same off-kilter sense of humor that won Ventura's ads much praise a decade ago and have cast him as the only candidate not concerned with destroying his opponents' reputation (the major parties have, predictably, ignored him). With only a week to go Barkley is still more likely to be a spoiler than a Senator, but the race is impossible to predict.
Colorado: Democratic Congressman Mark Udall should win this race comfortably against former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. Again, if Schaffer wins it's already been a remarkably good night for Republicans, but this race has the potential to surprise. Note that Mark Udall's cousin, Tom Udall, is all but certain to win the open Senate seat in New Mexico.
Oregon: Incumbent Republican Gordon Smith should have been safe, and would be in a non-Democratic year. Smith is a moderate who plays well with Democrats, supports environmental causes gay rights issues favored by a majority of Oregon voters, and has even said nice things about Barack Obama, but if the Democratic wave materializes Smith is likely to be swept away by challenger Jeff Merkley. By the time this race is called we'll have a good idea of what the Senate looks like already, and the tossup nature of the race may no longer be an issue: if it's a good Democratic night, expect Merkley to win comfortably; if the wave is small or nonexistent, Smith should survive.
Alaska: Perhaps the worst thing you can do a week before the election is be convicted on seven counts of felony corruption, but that's what incumbent Republican Ted Stevens has done. John McCain has already called on him to step down, but if he does, who runs in his place? Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the Democrat, was already running even or slightly ahead in this race and it seems unlikely that Alaska voters will rally 'round the corrupt old man they were already thinking of dumping now that he's been declared guilty. You'll be in bed by the time polls close in Alaska, more than likely, and we'd like to believe that no voters anywhere would happily return a corrupt convicted felon to office… but this has been a year when lots of things we'd like to believe have nonetheless been at issue. Begich should win this one but it could be a squeaker and until we have post-conviction polling available it's hard to say for sure.
02 November 2008
Political Post II
Every seat in the House is up for election, all 435 of them. Maybe 67 or so are actually in question. The GOP will hold 125 of their seats for sure, and the Dems will hold 200 of theirs. Another 26 GOP seats and 17 Dem seats should be safe (151-217, if you're keeping track; 218 is a majority). I won't list all 67 races that are of interest here. Instead I'll point to about a dozen interesting ones and a handful of potential bellwethers.
The one current Democrat incumbent who seems certain to be unseated is Tim Mahoney of Florida, who you may recall won in 2006 because Mark Foley liked to flirt with little boys. Mahoney's district leans Republican anyway, and then last month it came out that he had been having an affair with a secretary or something. We can assume he's toast; even a very strong Democratic wave shouldn't be enough to re-elect him. His opponent is Tom Rooney (yes, that's the name of the principal in Ferris Bueller's Day Off).
Don Young, Alaska's only House member and a 17-term incumbent (that means he's been in the House longer than Smitty has been alive), looks likely to be forced into retirement at last. Young has long been critical of the existence of ethics regulations and is known as a scrapper (if you like him) or an arrogant jerk who can't work well with even his own party (if you don't like him). Young is involved in a mysterious scandal in Alaska with an oilfield services company and it seems like the folks up there are finally tired of dealing with him. His opponent is former state representative Ethan Berkowitz.
New York 13, which is basically Staten Island, is another interesting case. Long a Republican sure-thing, incumbent Vito Fossella was caught out in an affair and then got a DUI conviction all within a few weeks. He wisely offered to step aside, but the local GOP couldn't settle on a candidate, and when they finally did, he died. Meanwhile New York City Councilman Mike McMahon has been the Dem candidate since last year. The current GOP candidate, Bob Stranriere, isn't a Staten Islander, having just moved in earlier this year to contest the seat. The county GOP committee tried to throw him off the ballot last month, and Staten Islanders care more about being represented by a Staten Islander than about the party label. McMahon should have an easy victory but it's certainly been an interesting race.
Pennsylvania 12 incumbent John Murtha, a Democrat and former Marine, should have been a sure thing, until last week when he went on record as saying that, "No question, western Pennsylvania is a racist area." Whether he's right or not will have no impact on the race, but no one who calls his own constituents racists is likely to do well in voting. His opponent, Bill Russell, has plenty of cash on hand and has been replaying Murtha's statement in television and radio ads. Murtha may still hang on—he's been there for years and is generally well thought of—but he's been at the center of a number of controversies over his career and this direct insult to the people who are supposed to vote for him may be the last straw. I haven't seen any polling but the CW has Russell turning the race around. This is one to watch, though it may not imply a good night for the GOP if Russell manages to oust Murtha.
In a similar vein, Minnesota 6 incumbent Republican Michelle Bachmann, in her first term, has become sort of a GOP version of Cynthia McKinney. In addition to calling several of her colleagues un-American, she has asserted publicly that Barack Obama holds "anti-American views" and has thrown out the notion that supporters of Obama may indeed be anti-American themselves; she even suggested opening a Congressional inquest in the anti-American views of other members of Congress… which makes her, to use a tired phrase, Joe McCarthy with lipstick. Minnesota is strongly in the Obama camp, and even in Bachman's GOP-leaning district those are not the sort of comments that endear you to your voters. Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg has pulled into the lead in some polls on the race and may very well be able to get past both the GOP lean of the district and his funny name to send Bachmann back home to face her not-so-anti-American constituents. Any sizable wave may carry Tinklenberg along, and as with Cynthia McKinney this is one incumbent members of both parties can look forward to being rid of.
New Jersey 5 is probably not that competitive, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has continued spending money here so it could be one to watch (if Sen. Frank Lautenberg were more popular he might be able to drag this district along, but it won't happen). The Democratic candidate here is Dennis Shulman, a psychologist, a rabbi, and blind; he'd be the first rabbi in Congress and only the second blind Congressman ever (the first served in the 1920s). It would be neat-o for that reason if he won, but the odds don't favor it; still, if Shulman manages a victory, it's probably going to be a big night for the Democrats.
In New Mexico 1, the Democratic candidate is Martin Heinrich, currently an Albuquerque city councilman. He should win by five to ten points. The interesting thing to note is that Heinrich was voted the Hottest Man in U.S. Politics in 2006. Note that another former Hottest Politician is going to be at the top of the ballot this year on a GOP line; keep an eye on Heinrich. Pretty people sometimes get plucked from obscurity (and they aren't all idiots.
Pennsylvania 3 is currently held by the GOP, but recent polling has shown the incumbent rather far behind his challenger, Kathy Dahlkemper. What's interesting about this race? Dahlkemper is the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum. She'd be the first arborist to serve in Congress. As a tree guy myself I appreciate that. Incidentally, if you ever find yourself in the Erie area, the Arboretum is worth a visit. The first tree at the arboretum was planted in 1998 (with more planted every year thereafter), so if you go now, you'll see a lot of little trees. And then if you go again thirty years from now… well, that'd be pretty neat.
Also watch for Indiana 3 and Illinois 18. These are the only two House candidates this year younger than Smitty. The Republican candidate in Illinois 18, Aaron Schock, is 27. It's an open seat but should be an easy GOP win. The Democratic candidate in Indiana 3 is Mike Montagano, who is 26. This race is said to be a tie, but it will take a good Democratic wave for a 26-year-old attorney to oust an incumbent.
Another big one would be South Carolina 1. What? Am I serious? South Carolina? Yep. Because we always assume SC will go Republican the state doesn't get polled much, and there's been talk that Obama could surprise—although the surprise would be in the form of losing by less than expected. But if there a huge surge in black turnout, he might be able to drag SC-1 into the democratic column even while losing. The incumbent, Henry Brown, is not unpopular, but the district is more competitive than most in this state. The really intriguing bit is that his opponent, Linda Ketner, is openly gay. That she might win a seat in Congress from South Carolina indicates that we may have the state pegged wrong. Let's hope.
The one current Democrat incumbent who seems certain to be unseated is Tim Mahoney of Florida, who you may recall won in 2006 because Mark Foley liked to flirt with little boys. Mahoney's district leans Republican anyway, and then last month it came out that he had been having an affair with a secretary or something. We can assume he's toast; even a very strong Democratic wave shouldn't be enough to re-elect him. His opponent is Tom Rooney (yes, that's the name of the principal in Ferris Bueller's Day Off).
Don Young, Alaska's only House member and a 17-term incumbent (that means he's been in the House longer than Smitty has been alive), looks likely to be forced into retirement at last. Young has long been critical of the existence of ethics regulations and is known as a scrapper (if you like him) or an arrogant jerk who can't work well with even his own party (if you don't like him). Young is involved in a mysterious scandal in Alaska with an oilfield services company and it seems like the folks up there are finally tired of dealing with him. His opponent is former state representative Ethan Berkowitz.
New York 13, which is basically Staten Island, is another interesting case. Long a Republican sure-thing, incumbent Vito Fossella was caught out in an affair and then got a DUI conviction all within a few weeks. He wisely offered to step aside, but the local GOP couldn't settle on a candidate, and when they finally did, he died. Meanwhile New York City Councilman Mike McMahon has been the Dem candidate since last year. The current GOP candidate, Bob Stranriere, isn't a Staten Islander, having just moved in earlier this year to contest the seat. The county GOP committee tried to throw him off the ballot last month, and Staten Islanders care more about being represented by a Staten Islander than about the party label. McMahon should have an easy victory but it's certainly been an interesting race.
Pennsylvania 12 incumbent John Murtha, a Democrat and former Marine, should have been a sure thing, until last week when he went on record as saying that, "No question, western Pennsylvania is a racist area." Whether he's right or not will have no impact on the race, but no one who calls his own constituents racists is likely to do well in voting. His opponent, Bill Russell, has plenty of cash on hand and has been replaying Murtha's statement in television and radio ads. Murtha may still hang on—he's been there for years and is generally well thought of—but he's been at the center of a number of controversies over his career and this direct insult to the people who are supposed to vote for him may be the last straw. I haven't seen any polling but the CW has Russell turning the race around. This is one to watch, though it may not imply a good night for the GOP if Russell manages to oust Murtha.
In a similar vein, Minnesota 6 incumbent Republican Michelle Bachmann, in her first term, has become sort of a GOP version of Cynthia McKinney. In addition to calling several of her colleagues un-American, she has asserted publicly that Barack Obama holds "anti-American views" and has thrown out the notion that supporters of Obama may indeed be anti-American themselves; she even suggested opening a Congressional inquest in the anti-American views of other members of Congress… which makes her, to use a tired phrase, Joe McCarthy with lipstick. Minnesota is strongly in the Obama camp, and even in Bachman's GOP-leaning district those are not the sort of comments that endear you to your voters. Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg has pulled into the lead in some polls on the race and may very well be able to get past both the GOP lean of the district and his funny name to send Bachmann back home to face her not-so-anti-American constituents. Any sizable wave may carry Tinklenberg along, and as with Cynthia McKinney this is one incumbent members of both parties can look forward to being rid of.
New Jersey 5 is probably not that competitive, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has continued spending money here so it could be one to watch (if Sen. Frank Lautenberg were more popular he might be able to drag this district along, but it won't happen). The Democratic candidate here is Dennis Shulman, a psychologist, a rabbi, and blind; he'd be the first rabbi in Congress and only the second blind Congressman ever (the first served in the 1920s). It would be neat-o for that reason if he won, but the odds don't favor it; still, if Shulman manages a victory, it's probably going to be a big night for the Democrats.
In New Mexico 1, the Democratic candidate is Martin Heinrich, currently an Albuquerque city councilman. He should win by five to ten points. The interesting thing to note is that Heinrich was voted the Hottest Man in U.S. Politics in 2006. Note that another former Hottest Politician is going to be at the top of the ballot this year on a GOP line; keep an eye on Heinrich. Pretty people sometimes get plucked from obscurity (and they aren't all idiots.
Pennsylvania 3 is currently held by the GOP, but recent polling has shown the incumbent rather far behind his challenger, Kathy Dahlkemper. What's interesting about this race? Dahlkemper is the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum. She'd be the first arborist to serve in Congress. As a tree guy myself I appreciate that. Incidentally, if you ever find yourself in the Erie area, the Arboretum is worth a visit. The first tree at the arboretum was planted in 1998 (with more planted every year thereafter), so if you go now, you'll see a lot of little trees. And then if you go again thirty years from now… well, that'd be pretty neat.
Also watch for Indiana 3 and Illinois 18. These are the only two House candidates this year younger than Smitty. The Republican candidate in Illinois 18, Aaron Schock, is 27. It's an open seat but should be an easy GOP win. The Democratic candidate in Indiana 3 is Mike Montagano, who is 26. This race is said to be a tie, but it will take a good Democratic wave for a 26-year-old attorney to oust an incumbent.
Another big one would be South Carolina 1. What? Am I serious? South Carolina? Yep. Because we always assume SC will go Republican the state doesn't get polled much, and there's been talk that Obama could surprise—although the surprise would be in the form of losing by less than expected. But if there a huge surge in black turnout, he might be able to drag SC-1 into the democratic column even while losing. The incumbent, Henry Brown, is not unpopular, but the district is more competitive than most in this state. The really intriguing bit is that his opponent, Linda Ketner, is openly gay. That she might win a seat in Congress from South Carolina indicates that we may have the state pegged wrong. Let's hope.
31 October 2008
Political Post I
Hey there. I know I've been neglecting the blog, and I have pictures to post and all, but finding gainful employment comes first. Sorry for the layoff but, hey, I'm laid off. Give me time.
I would normally preview the upcoming election on this blog, so I'm going to. For the next four days I'll cover some different races by category, things to watch for, and so on. Then, on Tuesday, I'll post predictions in the morning, so you can see how far off I am while watching the coverage Tuesday night.
Now, if some huge event occurs in the next couple days, it could throw all these predictions and comments off. So, you know, if nothing happens we're good. Anyway. Caveat lector.
Normally I'd start with governors, and I intend to, but really, only one of them is particularly close, that in North Carolina, and we have close Senate and Presidential races there to watch instead. Governors races are less impacted by events nationally than other races so the contest in North Carolina may not be a good indicator of which way the wind is blowing on election night. Furthermore, unless you live in North Carolina, the choice of governor there won't much impact you, the way the races in the House and Senate may.
That being said, there are some races with potential interest. The North Carolina one, between Lt Gov Bev Perdue (D) and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) is the closest one in the country. Perdue was supposed to win easily as recently as this summer but McCrory has fought hard and turned the race into a toss-up; if the "wave" on election night is more about change than about electing Democrats (which I suspect will be the case), McCrory stands a good chance of earning a narrow victory here as he's been working to paint Perdue as an establishment hack.
There's also the Missouri governor's race. Jay Nixon, the attorney general, has been in office since 1992 and has run for governor at least twice already. The sitting governor, Matt Blunt, a Republican, was already polling behind Nixon last year, so he decided not to run for re-election. The sacrificial lamb is Congressman Kenny Hulshof, who has run a decent race but won't be able to keep the seat in the GOP's hands. It's Nixon's time--the only question is, by how much will he win, and, given how close the presidential race is in Missouri, will Nixon have any coattails for Obama? Tough to say. If Nixon wins big, though--and the networks should call this race before the presidential one--it could mean good things for Obama. A close result here and McCain will probably carry Missouri.
The other two races have more esoteric interest. Joe Biden is running strong for re-election in Delaware, but if he is elected Vice President, the next governor of Delaware will get to name his replacement. I don't know Delaware law; some states require the governor to name a person from the party of the departed Senator, others give the governor wide discretion to name whoever he or she wants. If the Delaware governor's race went to GOP candidate Bill Lee, things could get interesting. The race isn't thought to be very close (Democratic candidate Jack Markell is expected to win handily) but there's been no recent polling so it might be worth looking for this one.
Finally we have the gubernatorial contest in Indiana, where former Bush budget director Mitch Daniels, the GOP incumbent, is in a race with former Congresswoman and USDA bigfoot Jill Long Thompson. Polling on the race has been mixed and more than likely Daniels will win safely, but if Thompson manages a victory here, and if McCain wins the White House, Thompson might get a few looks as a potential presidential candidate in 2012. She is 56 and more Janet Reno than Sarah Palin, but she will have experience at all levels of government, a charming and normal family history, moderate views on most issues, and she's attacking the GOP incumbent for raising taxes. Interesting profile, indeed, and it's not hard to imagine her whispering campaign getting an early start. Unfortunately it is hard to imagine her winning this race.
Tomorrow: the House.
I would normally preview the upcoming election on this blog, so I'm going to. For the next four days I'll cover some different races by category, things to watch for, and so on. Then, on Tuesday, I'll post predictions in the morning, so you can see how far off I am while watching the coverage Tuesday night.
Now, if some huge event occurs in the next couple days, it could throw all these predictions and comments off. So, you know, if nothing happens we're good. Anyway. Caveat lector.
Normally I'd start with governors, and I intend to, but really, only one of them is particularly close, that in North Carolina, and we have close Senate and Presidential races there to watch instead. Governors races are less impacted by events nationally than other races so the contest in North Carolina may not be a good indicator of which way the wind is blowing on election night. Furthermore, unless you live in North Carolina, the choice of governor there won't much impact you, the way the races in the House and Senate may.
That being said, there are some races with potential interest. The North Carolina one, between Lt Gov Bev Perdue (D) and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) is the closest one in the country. Perdue was supposed to win easily as recently as this summer but McCrory has fought hard and turned the race into a toss-up; if the "wave" on election night is more about change than about electing Democrats (which I suspect will be the case), McCrory stands a good chance of earning a narrow victory here as he's been working to paint Perdue as an establishment hack.
There's also the Missouri governor's race. Jay Nixon, the attorney general, has been in office since 1992 and has run for governor at least twice already. The sitting governor, Matt Blunt, a Republican, was already polling behind Nixon last year, so he decided not to run for re-election. The sacrificial lamb is Congressman Kenny Hulshof, who has run a decent race but won't be able to keep the seat in the GOP's hands. It's Nixon's time--the only question is, by how much will he win, and, given how close the presidential race is in Missouri, will Nixon have any coattails for Obama? Tough to say. If Nixon wins big, though--and the networks should call this race before the presidential one--it could mean good things for Obama. A close result here and McCain will probably carry Missouri.
The other two races have more esoteric interest. Joe Biden is running strong for re-election in Delaware, but if he is elected Vice President, the next governor of Delaware will get to name his replacement. I don't know Delaware law; some states require the governor to name a person from the party of the departed Senator, others give the governor wide discretion to name whoever he or she wants. If the Delaware governor's race went to GOP candidate Bill Lee, things could get interesting. The race isn't thought to be very close (Democratic candidate Jack Markell is expected to win handily) but there's been no recent polling so it might be worth looking for this one.
Finally we have the gubernatorial contest in Indiana, where former Bush budget director Mitch Daniels, the GOP incumbent, is in a race with former Congresswoman and USDA bigfoot Jill Long Thompson. Polling on the race has been mixed and more than likely Daniels will win safely, but if Thompson manages a victory here, and if McCain wins the White House, Thompson might get a few looks as a potential presidential candidate in 2012. She is 56 and more Janet Reno than Sarah Palin, but she will have experience at all levels of government, a charming and normal family history, moderate views on most issues, and she's attacking the GOP incumbent for raising taxes. Interesting profile, indeed, and it's not hard to imagine her whispering campaign getting an early start. Unfortunately it is hard to imagine her winning this race.
Tomorrow: the House.
08 October 2008
"He doesn't trust me any more."
A teenage girl referring to the boyfriend she cheated on?
No. Me referring to our adopted orange and white cat. Our only tom, he was scheduled to go into the humane society this morning to become and orange and white not-tom. It's tough to bribe him since he's not supposed to eat, but I tried. He let me pick him up and carry him to the car, but he didn't like going in the car. I tried again, in the backseat this time, but he got his head out the door before I could close it and I couldn't get him back in. I tried baiting the back seat with cat treats, which only got the kittens in there (great, another place they think they own). Orange Pop went and hid, and every time I followed after him he ran farther away. Into the poison ivy (oh to be covered in fur and not care about poison ivy).
Now he is here:
Note the zoom inset. He's way up there in that dead tree.
I can't get him down. He managed to avoid his appointment with the surgeon today but what do I do about the future? We NEED free spaying for the females. They trust me enough to get in the car, and I can get them wherever they need to go. But I can't afford $70 per cat! HELP US!!!!
No. Me referring to our adopted orange and white cat. Our only tom, he was scheduled to go into the humane society this morning to become and orange and white not-tom. It's tough to bribe him since he's not supposed to eat, but I tried. He let me pick him up and carry him to the car, but he didn't like going in the car. I tried again, in the backseat this time, but he got his head out the door before I could close it and I couldn't get him back in. I tried baiting the back seat with cat treats, which only got the kittens in there (great, another place they think they own). Orange Pop went and hid, and every time I followed after him he ran farther away. Into the poison ivy (oh to be covered in fur and not care about poison ivy).
Now he is here:
Note the zoom inset. He's way up there in that dead tree. I can't get him down. He managed to avoid his appointment with the surgeon today but what do I do about the future? We NEED free spaying for the females. They trust me enough to get in the car, and I can get them wherever they need to go. But I can't afford $70 per cat! HELP US!!!!
07 October 2008
House Stories Part II
Today I will return to the theme of "What a difference a can of paint can make." Or in this case about six cans. In one room.
When we bought the house we knew several of the interior rooms were due for a change. The bathroom was the worst, and the laundry room was bad, but there were two rooms with mainly cosmetic problems. The first was what you may think of as the guest bedroom, or the second bedroom (or someday off in the misty future the kid bedroom, but not any time soon). We've been referring to it as the "Green Room," and these pictures will show you why. First, the before pic:
Damn. That, that is a color, right there. And not a good one. Who in the hell paints a room canary yellow with a royal blue chair rail? Did you notice that even the floor register in the lower left corner (not actually connected to any ductwork or any actual central climate control system) is yellow? What where they thinking? And there is no baseboard in this room. At all.
From hundreds of miles away, we could see that paint job; it kept us awake at night. We picked out some colors and sent the paint chips up to our housepainter (Mike Henderson, highly recommended) and said, "Go. Make it better." And so he did.
Evidently he used six cans of paint in that room because the yellow kept showing through. Dang.
Then there was the living room. In this house, when you walk in the front door, the first room you enter is the living room. First, the pano:
And next, a shot of the fireplace area:
I would like to point out here the lack of any crown moulding, the spiderweb between the fireplace and the door (that door goes out to the side porch, which you saw in exterior shots in the previous post), and the lovely stains on the carpet. Lots of stains on this carpet; this room wasn't the worst. You can see the beautiful canary yellow room through that door there, and the blue room behind is the dining room. We didn't care for the paint color here, which I would describe as somewhere between "Damp Sand" and "Dead Body." It made the whole room lifeless...
And now, for the after shots. The new color, best seen in this photo, is "Ripe Wheat." I like that name better than "Dead Body."
Note also the new crown moulding, and the repainted door (I don't miss the three mysterious brown spots).
Here is a picture of the fireplace.
The mantle block was repainted, too, which is nice, and all the trim around the doors and windows. They did a very nice job and, but for the still-crappy carpet, the room seems nice and new. This picture doesn't do the paint color justice, but there are more pictures for later down the road.
When we bought the house we knew several of the interior rooms were due for a change. The bathroom was the worst, and the laundry room was bad, but there were two rooms with mainly cosmetic problems. The first was what you may think of as the guest bedroom, or the second bedroom (or someday off in the misty future the kid bedroom, but not any time soon). We've been referring to it as the "Green Room," and these pictures will show you why. First, the before pic:
Damn. That, that is a color, right there. And not a good one. Who in the hell paints a room canary yellow with a royal blue chair rail? Did you notice that even the floor register in the lower left corner (not actually connected to any ductwork or any actual central climate control system) is yellow? What where they thinking? And there is no baseboard in this room. At all.
From hundreds of miles away, we could see that paint job; it kept us awake at night. We picked out some colors and sent the paint chips up to our housepainter (Mike Henderson, highly recommended) and said, "Go. Make it better." And so he did.
Evidently he used six cans of paint in that room because the yellow kept showing through. Dang.
Then there was the living room. In this house, when you walk in the front door, the first room you enter is the living room. First, the pano:
And next, a shot of the fireplace area:
I would like to point out here the lack of any crown moulding, the spiderweb between the fireplace and the door (that door goes out to the side porch, which you saw in exterior shots in the previous post), and the lovely stains on the carpet. Lots of stains on this carpet; this room wasn't the worst. You can see the beautiful canary yellow room through that door there, and the blue room behind is the dining room. We didn't care for the paint color here, which I would describe as somewhere between "Damp Sand" and "Dead Body." It made the whole room lifeless... And now, for the after shots. The new color, best seen in this photo, is "Ripe Wheat." I like that name better than "Dead Body."
Note also the new crown moulding, and the repainted door (I don't miss the three mysterious brown spots). Here is a picture of the fireplace.
The mantle block was repainted, too, which is nice, and all the trim around the doors and windows. They did a very nice job and, but for the still-crappy carpet, the room seems nice and new. This picture doesn't do the paint color justice, but there are more pictures for later down the road.
Autumn!
This morning we stepped out onto the porch as Smittywife was leaving for work, and we just paused. And the wind blew through the treetops. Rustle, rustle. Whoosh.
Ahhh... There's just a hint of color on the leaves on our oak trees this morning, and I'm sure it wasn't there yesterday. The leaves are rustling in the wind so nicely (punctuated by the occasional drop of an acorn striking the ground at terminal velocity... be careful where you park if you come by), and the temperature has settled nicely into the 60s and 70s. It's autumn! Hooray!
Ahhh... There's just a hint of color on the leaves on our oak trees this morning, and I'm sure it wasn't there yesterday. The leaves are rustling in the wind so nicely (punctuated by the occasional drop of an acorn striking the ground at terminal velocity... be careful where you park if you come by), and the temperature has settled nicely into the 60s and 70s. It's autumn! Hooray!
02 October 2008
At Last! The House Series Has Begun!
Question: What is the cheapest, fastest, and easiest way to improve the look of a house?
Answer: Turn on the light! Ha ha ha ha!! Oh, man. Gets me every time. But seriously, most decorators and other types will tell you that a good quality paint job will do a lot to brighten and improve any room, or indeed a whole house. This is evidenced by today's selection of photos.
In the initial photos, shown below, you can see how really crapulent the paint job was when we bought our house. It had probably been painted sometime in the 1980s, I'm guessing, which is rather a long time ago. The paint was peeling of sheets in some cases, badly flaked everywhere, and had to be stripped and entirely redone. Not a job I was looking forward to doing my self--stripping and painting Dutch Clapboard is not exactly a giddy thrill.
Fortunately I never intended to do the job myself, but after fainting dead away in the middle of walking the dog when I was given the first quote for the place--just shy of 10 grand--we set about looking for somebody who would do a competent job cheaply. Thank goodness we found one (thanks to the Simpsonville Lowe's). His name was Mike Henderson--and I recommend Mike Henderson as a great inexpensive housepainter in the Greenville area. (That should show up on Google eventually.)
There was more wood than paint showing through in some areas, as you can see. Though the green parts had clearly been painted more recently, I suspect people just kept slapping new paint over old peeling paint on the siding, not taking any time to do it right, because it's hard to do it right. That's why you pay somebody.
And so we did. I think you can see from the After pictures below how much better the place looks. Yes, there are a lot of paint shavings on the ground now, and I need to come up with an effective way to clean those up. Any suggestions would be appreciated... I'm not looking forward to just taking a flat-bladed shovel to the entire area around the house, but it's my only idea so far.
Answer: Turn on the light! Ha ha ha ha!! Oh, man. Gets me every time. But seriously, most decorators and other types will tell you that a good quality paint job will do a lot to brighten and improve any room, or indeed a whole house. This is evidenced by today's selection of photos.
In the initial photos, shown below, you can see how really crapulent the paint job was when we bought our house. It had probably been painted sometime in the 1980s, I'm guessing, which is rather a long time ago. The paint was peeling of sheets in some cases, badly flaked everywhere, and had to be stripped and entirely redone. Not a job I was looking forward to doing my self--stripping and painting Dutch Clapboard is not exactly a giddy thrill.
Fortunately I never intended to do the job myself, but after fainting dead away in the middle of walking the dog when I was given the first quote for the place--just shy of 10 grand--we set about looking for somebody who would do a competent job cheaply. Thank goodness we found one (thanks to the Simpsonville Lowe's). His name was Mike Henderson--and I recommend Mike Henderson as a great inexpensive housepainter in the Greenville area. (That should show up on Google eventually.)
There was more wood than paint showing through in some areas, as you can see. Though the green parts had clearly been painted more recently, I suspect people just kept slapping new paint over old peeling paint on the siding, not taking any time to do it right, because it's hard to do it right. That's why you pay somebody.
And so we did. I think you can see from the After pictures below how much better the place looks. Yes, there are a lot of paint shavings on the ground now, and I need to come up with an effective way to clean those up. Any suggestions would be appreciated... I'm not looking forward to just taking a flat-bladed shovel to the entire area around the house, but it's my only idea so far.
30 September 2008
Six Short Book Reviews
I've been meaning to review these books forever and haven't got round to it and at this rate I won't for ages. So here's the abbreviated version in order of the first read. As always any of these are available for checkout from the Smitty Library.
1. An Embarrassment of Mangoes, by Ann Vanderhoof.
Wonderful book. Enjoyable to read, will whet your appetite for a Caribbean vacation. Great recipes, although we haven't actually tried any of them yet (but I really want to, especially now I know the DeKalb Farmer's Market in Atlanta has callaloo). Ann Vanderhoof has done what we all want to do--leave the rat race behind and take a vacation forever (or a year, in her case)--so obviously she has more money than the rest of us, but she never ever writes like it, and the book is just a pleasure. Highly recommended.
2. The Diamond Age, by Neal Stephenson.
A reread. I love Snow Crash and, the last time I read it, I still loved it. I like this book a great deal, but it runs out of steam 3/4 of the way through and enters a territory of great weirdness where it starts to get difficult to follow and even, frankly, to suspend disbelief for. Still contains wonderful moments of philosophy and lots of solid factual grounding, and still mostly a very fun read. But not as much fun as I remembered. Definitely worth looking at, but it shows the direction Stephenson has taken generally (i.e. increasingly hard to read).
3. Whatever You Do, Don't Run, by Peter Allison.
Subtitled "True Tales of a Botswana Safari Guide." Lots of fun. Not quite as funny as you might expect from the cover blurbs and actually surprisingly touching at times, nonetheless a light, quick read, perfect for a bedside book as it consists of a collection of short episodes. I greatly enjoyed this book, and I don't think you need to have gone on safari to enjoy it yourself. It may make you want to pick up and go, though. I suspect Mr. Allison has three or four more books of stories in him and he is a fine storyteller. Smittywife needs to read this before it goes into the lending library circulation.
4. Airline/Transport Pilot Oral Exam Guide
Technical book of very limited interest. Will be out of date soon anyway, and since none of the airlines are actually hiring I won't need to take the test. Useful for brushing up on things before my interview, though.
5. Emergency Sex, by Kenneth Cain, Heidi Postlewait, and Andrew Thomson.
Absolutely my highest recommendation; the best book I've read this year. The authors were UN Peacekeepers during the 1990s and into the early 2000s and these are their tales. If you are at all aware of the existence of other countries you should read this book. If you are a firebreathing conservative and think the UN should be shut down, you should read this book. If you are bleeding-heart liberal and think the UN should take over the world, you should read this book. If you think it matters at all how the US is viewed in the other countries, you should read this book. If you don't think it matters how the US is viewed in other countries but are aware that other people have opinions, you should read this book.
You should read this book. It is gripping. It is well-written. It matters.
6. The Power and the Glory, by Graham Greene.
Interesting. On a lot of "Best Books" lists, which is why I read it. I will pick up The Quiet American and The Comedians on the basis of this, but I can't say I was exactly swept up in it or transfixed by its brilliance. Greene knows how to build a novel and is a good writer; if the subject matter, faith (in particular Catholicism) and keeping faith when there is no Earthly reason to do so, is of remote interest to you, this is one of few novels on the subject that doesn't preach to you (there's plenty of preachy junk out there for you if you want that). But it never really answers any questions, for the protagonist or for the reader. Valuable, but not one you need to put at the top of your list.
1. An Embarrassment of Mangoes, by Ann Vanderhoof.
Wonderful book. Enjoyable to read, will whet your appetite for a Caribbean vacation. Great recipes, although we haven't actually tried any of them yet (but I really want to, especially now I know the DeKalb Farmer's Market in Atlanta has callaloo). Ann Vanderhoof has done what we all want to do--leave the rat race behind and take a vacation forever (or a year, in her case)--so obviously she has more money than the rest of us, but she never ever writes like it, and the book is just a pleasure. Highly recommended.
2. The Diamond Age, by Neal Stephenson.
A reread. I love Snow Crash and, the last time I read it, I still loved it. I like this book a great deal, but it runs out of steam 3/4 of the way through and enters a territory of great weirdness where it starts to get difficult to follow and even, frankly, to suspend disbelief for. Still contains wonderful moments of philosophy and lots of solid factual grounding, and still mostly a very fun read. But not as much fun as I remembered. Definitely worth looking at, but it shows the direction Stephenson has taken generally (i.e. increasingly hard to read).
3. Whatever You Do, Don't Run, by Peter Allison.
Subtitled "True Tales of a Botswana Safari Guide." Lots of fun. Not quite as funny as you might expect from the cover blurbs and actually surprisingly touching at times, nonetheless a light, quick read, perfect for a bedside book as it consists of a collection of short episodes. I greatly enjoyed this book, and I don't think you need to have gone on safari to enjoy it yourself. It may make you want to pick up and go, though. I suspect Mr. Allison has three or four more books of stories in him and he is a fine storyteller. Smittywife needs to read this before it goes into the lending library circulation.
4. Airline/Transport Pilot Oral Exam Guide
Technical book of very limited interest. Will be out of date soon anyway, and since none of the airlines are actually hiring I won't need to take the test. Useful for brushing up on things before my interview, though.
5. Emergency Sex, by Kenneth Cain, Heidi Postlewait, and Andrew Thomson.
Absolutely my highest recommendation; the best book I've read this year. The authors were UN Peacekeepers during the 1990s and into the early 2000s and these are their tales. If you are at all aware of the existence of other countries you should read this book. If you are a firebreathing conservative and think the UN should be shut down, you should read this book. If you are bleeding-heart liberal and think the UN should take over the world, you should read this book. If you think it matters at all how the US is viewed in the other countries, you should read this book. If you don't think it matters how the US is viewed in other countries but are aware that other people have opinions, you should read this book.
You should read this book. It is gripping. It is well-written. It matters.
6. The Power and the Glory, by Graham Greene.
Interesting. On a lot of "Best Books" lists, which is why I read it. I will pick up The Quiet American and The Comedians on the basis of this, but I can't say I was exactly swept up in it or transfixed by its brilliance. Greene knows how to build a novel and is a good writer; if the subject matter, faith (in particular Catholicism) and keeping faith when there is no Earthly reason to do so, is of remote interest to you, this is one of few novels on the subject that doesn't preach to you (there's plenty of preachy junk out there for you if you want that). But it never really answers any questions, for the protagonist or for the reader. Valuable, but not one you need to put at the top of your list.
Short Short Book Reviews
I've been meaning to review these books forever and haven't got round to it and at this rate I won't for ages. So here's the abbreviated version in order of the first read. As always any of these are available for checkout from the Smitty Library.
1. An Embarrassment of Mangoes, by Ann Vanderhoof.
Wonderful book. Enjoyable to read, will whet your appetite for a Caribbean vacation. Great recipes, although we haven't actually tried any of them yet (but I really want to, especially now I know the DeKalb Farmer's Market in Atlanta has callaloo). Ann Vanderhoof has done what we all want to do--leave the rat race behind and take a vacation forever (or a year, in her case)--so obviously she has more money than the rest of us, but she never ever writes like it, and the book is just a pleasure. Highly recommended.
2. The Diamond Age, by Neal Stephenson.
A reread. I love Snow Crash and, the last time I read it, I still loved it. I like this book a great deal, but it runs out of steam 3/4 of the way through and enters a territory of great weirdness where it starts to get difficult to follow and even, frankly, to suspend disbelief for. Still contains wonderful moments of philosophy and lots of solid factual grounding, and still mostly a very fun read. But not as much fun as I remembered. Definitely worth looking at, but it shows the direction Stephenson has taken generally (i.e. increasingly hard to read).
3. Whatever You Do, Don't Run, by Peter Allison.
Subtitled "True Tales of a Botswana Safari Guide." Lots of fun. Not quite as funny as you might expect from the cover blurbs and actually surprisingly touching at times, nonetheless a light, quick read, perfect for a bedside book as it consists of a collection of short episodes. I greatly enjoyed this book, and I don't think you need to have gone on safari to enjoy it yourself. It may make you want to pick up and go, though. I suspect Mr. Allison has three or four more books of stories in him and he is a fine storyteller. Smittywife needs to read this before it goes into the lending library circulation.
4. Airline/Transport Pilot Oral Exam Guide
Technical book of very limited interest. Will be out of date soon anyway, and since none of the airlines are actually hiring I won't need to take the test. Useful for brushing up on things before my interview, though.
5. Emergency Sex, by Kenneth Cain, Heidi Postlewait, and Andrew Thomson.
Absolutely my highest recommendation; the best book I've read this year. The authors were UN Peacekeepers during the 1990s and into the early 2000s and these are their tales. If you are at all aware of the existence of other countries you should read this book. If you are a firebreathing conservative and think the UN should be shut down, you should read this book. If you are bleeding-heart liberal and think the UN should take over the world, you should read this book. If you think it matters at all how the US is viewed in the other countries, you should read this book. If you don't think it matters how the US is viewed in other countries but are aware that other people have opinions, you should read this book.
You should read this book. It is gripping. It is well-written. It matters.
6. The Power and the Glory, by Graham Greene.
Interesting. On a lot of "Best Books" lists, which is why I read it. I will pick up The Quiet American and The Comedians on the basis of this, but I can't say I was exactly swept up in it or transfixed by its brilliance. Greene knows how to build a novel and is a good writer; if the subject matter, faith (in particular Catholicism) and keeping faith when there is no Earthly reason to do so, is of remote interest to you, this is one of few novels on the subject that doesn't preach to you (there's plenty of preachy junk out there for you if you want that). But it never really answers any questions, for the protagonist or for the reader. Valuable, but not one you need to put at the top of your list.
1. An Embarrassment of Mangoes, by Ann Vanderhoof.
Wonderful book. Enjoyable to read, will whet your appetite for a Caribbean vacation. Great recipes, although we haven't actually tried any of them yet (but I really want to, especially now I know the DeKalb Farmer's Market in Atlanta has callaloo). Ann Vanderhoof has done what we all want to do--leave the rat race behind and take a vacation forever (or a year, in her case)--so obviously she has more money than the rest of us, but she never ever writes like it, and the book is just a pleasure. Highly recommended.
2. The Diamond Age, by Neal Stephenson.
A reread. I love Snow Crash and, the last time I read it, I still loved it. I like this book a great deal, but it runs out of steam 3/4 of the way through and enters a territory of great weirdness where it starts to get difficult to follow and even, frankly, to suspend disbelief for. Still contains wonderful moments of philosophy and lots of solid factual grounding, and still mostly a very fun read. But not as much fun as I remembered. Definitely worth looking at, but it shows the direction Stephenson has taken generally (i.e. increasingly hard to read).
3. Whatever You Do, Don't Run, by Peter Allison.
Subtitled "True Tales of a Botswana Safari Guide." Lots of fun. Not quite as funny as you might expect from the cover blurbs and actually surprisingly touching at times, nonetheless a light, quick read, perfect for a bedside book as it consists of a collection of short episodes. I greatly enjoyed this book, and I don't think you need to have gone on safari to enjoy it yourself. It may make you want to pick up and go, though. I suspect Mr. Allison has three or four more books of stories in him and he is a fine storyteller. Smittywife needs to read this before it goes into the lending library circulation.
4. Airline/Transport Pilot Oral Exam Guide
Technical book of very limited interest. Will be out of date soon anyway, and since none of the airlines are actually hiring I won't need to take the test. Useful for brushing up on things before my interview, though.
5. Emergency Sex, by Kenneth Cain, Heidi Postlewait, and Andrew Thomson.
Absolutely my highest recommendation; the best book I've read this year. The authors were UN Peacekeepers during the 1990s and into the early 2000s and these are their tales. If you are at all aware of the existence of other countries you should read this book. If you are a firebreathing conservative and think the UN should be shut down, you should read this book. If you are bleeding-heart liberal and think the UN should take over the world, you should read this book. If you think it matters at all how the US is viewed in the other countries, you should read this book. If you don't think it matters how the US is viewed in other countries but are aware that other people have opinions, you should read this book.
You should read this book. It is gripping. It is well-written. It matters.
6. The Power and the Glory, by Graham Greene.
Interesting. On a lot of "Best Books" lists, which is why I read it. I will pick up The Quiet American and The Comedians on the basis of this, but I can't say I was exactly swept up in it or transfixed by its brilliance. Greene knows how to build a novel and is a good writer; if the subject matter, faith (in particular Catholicism) and keeping faith when there is no Earthly reason to do so, is of remote interest to you, this is one of few novels on the subject that doesn't preach to you (there's plenty of preachy junk out there for you if you want that). But it never really answers any questions, for the protagonist or for the reader. Valuable, but not one you need to put at the top of your list.
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