Backlink

If you came here having read the previous note on Smitty's World about that blog shutting down, and were for some reason disappointed to read that... don't delete that bookmark just yet. The shutdown announcement may have been premature.

A bit premature, perhaps

Maybe the previous post was a bit premature. Smitty's Library is up and running, but perhaps it was too early to give up on this blog just yet.

Smittywife and I had a come to Jesus talk last night. (Actually, she did the talking and I did the listening, and Jesus wasn't part of it at all. There must be a similar phrase in use in non-Christian countries, but I don't know what it would be; a come to Vishnu talk doesn't really make sense.) I won't go into it. She did make mention of the fact that there must be something wrong with me if I can't even think of anything to do with the blog anymore. A fair point, certainly.

After such a talk I would have expected that I'd spend most of the night awake in bed, thinking. But I didn't. Instead I got a really solid night's sleep, which was odd but a pleasant surprise. And I thought, when I got up, that maybe a good way to keep myself motivated on other things is to use the blog as a kind of daily journal of what I've done each day to be... useful. To get out of the house and do something, to spend time out, in the community, and not just here at the house.

And if I'm in the habit of blogging about that it should keep me motivated to do it; otherwise what would I have to do?

I would like to say, maybe, I could post in the morning about the previous day or at night about that day, depending. And maybe as time goes on I'll feel more like posting about other stuff, too. So maybe this blog isn't dead quite yet. I'm not dead yet, after all.

The American Home Front

This is one of many books I've had in the house for a while but never bothered to read. It's a shame I let it sit so long.

I have a number of books by people who've attempted to travel the entire breadth of the United States to... I don't know. Find America, usually. Sometimes there's a conceit--in the case of The Cannibal Queen, it was that the traveling was done in a 1941 Stearman biplane (my kind of conceit). In Lost Continent, the conceit was the in the author's attitude to everyone he came into contact with. In other cases, there's a specific reason driving the journey, as in Haynes Johnson's Divided We Fall, a tour of America during our last (real) recession in the early 1990s (a depressing but relevant book). I enjoy the genre, but I find that there's not usually anything terribly new in it from one book to the next, once you get past the conceit or the reason. You might go to a different place, but America is America, and as Bill Bryson pointed out just about everywhere has become Anytown USA.

That makes Alistair Cooke's The American Home Front: 1941-1942 rather interesting, as he made his journey before Levittown was built, and before the rest of the country started to look like it. Cooke was a Brit sent to America by the BBC to report on America to the British. He earned his citizenship in 1941, just before the war, and embarked on this journey primarily to give the good folks back home a look at America on the brink of war. The places he visits, even those that are intimately familiar (Jacksonville and Tampa, for example), are hardly recognizable, the America of Yesteryear, yet presented without nostalgia because the book was written in Yesteryear.

Needless to say I enjoyed it immensely, because I do like the genre. But like almost every book in said genre, it was a bit too long. America is very big. You can travel around America and notice things for about 200 pages before you need to wrap it up. Really. And you can't possibly see the whole country in that time, so you have to limit yourself... or not, as no one respects the 200-pages notion. So the books always drag by the last quarter. It's not that the writing isn't as good nor the insights as fresh, it's just that, well, nothing new is happening. Change in setting is not enough to maintain interest when everything else remains more or less the same. I can't think of a book I've read of this sort that wasn't too long; even On the Road was too long. It's a shame, because either you get sick of the book and the writer, or, as in this case, you're tempted to skim parts of the last quarter, and those areas of the country last on the itinerary you're less interested in reading about.

So. I like this genre, and anything well-written in it is going to be appealing. And the greatest fault of this book is the same as that for any other in the genre, namely, it runs a bit too long. Why read this one instead of any other? I could go on about Cooke's writing, which is very nice, or his observational abilities, which are excellent as one would hope for a journalist. The truth is, though, this is an America you can not go back to. And not only that, anyone today who tries to tell you what America was like in the 1940s, even from personal experience, is going to get a lot of things wrong. We are nostalgic creatures, and nostalgia colors our view of the past. You can't change that. The only way to get a sense of a historical place is to read a contemporary writer who was deliberately trying to write about the here and now. And that is exactly what Cooke was doing.

Some travel-across-America books do not wear well, for various reasons; the writing may be substandard, the conceit may hinder readers' interest. Others will still be read decades from now. I hope The American Home Front is in the latter category. It deserves an audience, and before long there will be few people left who can even offer clouded remembrances of the era. As a historical document then, as much as anything, this is a great book. How nice that it's also such an enjoyable read.

Blog Movement

I haven't posted to this blog in quite some time. Probably will not continue with it, either. Sorry. It's just... I don't know, I guess I lost interest, or at any rate I haven't felt like writing here in so long I don't know that the desire is going to come back.

Those of you who are on facebook and know my name, I have a profile there, and like to make use of the Notes feature. Those who don't have a facebook... what are you waiting for? I mean, apart from time during the day to waste on facebook. Seriously, though, join facebook. Be sure to use my middle name when searching for me, and of course limit your search to the Greenville network. Otherwise you'll be looking forever through a stack of people with my name.

I have started another blog, however. The one thing I would like to carry on from this blog is book reviews and commentary, so I've started up Smitty's Library for that purpose. At present that blog is a mirror of this one, but I'm going to cut out all the non-book-related posts and redesign it. I hope you'll look in on that from time to time.

I will not be deleting this blog.

Thanks to all my readers.

Oi

vey.

I don't know what to say but I can't let a whole month go by without a post. Truth is, I get this way sometimes. I want to write, I feel better when I do, but I'm unsure how I feel about... almost everything. And therefore I don't know what to say. I don't even know if I'm happy. I think I am, though, and therefore I assume if I'm happy I must have reason to be, and if I have a reason to be happy, then it would be a foolish thing indeed not to be happy. So I'm happy.

But I don't know if I actually am or if it just logically makes sense that I should be.

And that's pretty much how I feel about everything of late. Goodness me I hope there are jobs out there come January. I'm driving temp for FedEx, which I sort of like, but don't. There's actually nothing about the job I dislike apart from the amount of sitting involved, but it's sitting broken up by frequent short walks, which is good, and better than many other jobs that involve a lot of sitting. So I like the job. Except that it's temporary and amounts to underemployment. So I shouldn't be that happy about it, or, at any rate, I'm not, even though I actually like it. See? I'm confused. Mainly that's what it is, I'm confused.

I need to meditate more. I also need to row more. There are dozens of things I want to do more of, but somehow I don't do them. Am I sitting listlessly in front of the computer all day, or dozing on the couch? No, I don't think so. But I feel like I have enough time in a day to do much more than I do.

Buddha said, life is dissatisfaction. We are always dissatisfied because we are not enlightened and freed from craving. Is productivity a normal craving to have? Perhaps only in America. I feel more released from material craving than I have in the past, which I would like to take for a sign of maturity but is really a result of simply not having the money to spend on things. I've gotten used to saying, well yes I'd like to have one of those, but I'm not going to buy one because I can't. It's actually rather refreshing. I need to apply the same feeling to food, though, because we eat out too often and spend too much when we do eat out. We could really get by with simply eating out less often, or with being more conscientious when we do eat out. Do I need a beer? No. I want one. Well, wants are grand and all, but not financially responsible.

Anyway. Just some rambling. I'll try to drop by and ramble more often, how's that?

Well, shit

The kittens have entered estrus (that is to say, they're in heat). Orange Pop does not appear to be bothering them, which I find remarkable and, probably, not actually the case. But a neighbor cat across the street has been coming around and they are fighting back. Thing is, I'm pretty sure neighbor cat is dad... which means if he does get any of them preggo, hey, we've got inbred kittens. Great.

I would like to do something; I would like to have already done something but I'm too broke to get four female cats fixed. I'm not even sure I could get Mama in the car; the kittens I could handle, and I've figured out Orange Pop (put food in there. No problem), but regardless we are too broke to pay to get all these cats spayed and/or neutered and get them their shots. And yes, if I had a goddamn job we wouldn't be that broke so please feel free to blame me for that because it helps a lot, really, it does, really solves the fucking problem.

My neighbors can't be bothered to get their cats fixed, so our feral colony is going to grow. Yaay! No, not yay. If kittens appear they WILL go to the human society as soon as I can get rid of them. We are not starting a club here.

There used to be a Trap-Neuter-Release organization here in town, Greenville Concerned Citizens for Animals, but they can't afford to help any more because of lack of donations, so anybody from Greenville who wishes to criticize us for not getting the cats spayed or neutered already can go pound salt as far as I'm concerned; I can't afford to do it.

We could just take them all up to the humane society, all five, and leave them there. Let them take care of the lot of them. We wouldn't have to deal with so many cats, and Tribble, who is spayed, could be an indoor-outdoor without having to run the gauntlet on the porch. I think she would appreciate that. Is that appropriate? Is it what we should do? What's to say the feral colony down the road would end up on our doorstep because we don't drown stray cats? Then the problem just reasserts itself.

Jackson is going to the vet this afternoon and I'm going to discuss it with them, but they're not running a charity either. Who's going to spay four cats and neuter a fifth for no recompense? And really, does taking them all up to the humane society fix anything? Mama is not fit to be a housecat, she's to skittish around people. Orange Pop would probably get adopted out because he's pretty friendly, but this is his home; he lived next door for most of his life, I'm sure, and I suspect he'd try to come back. The kittens are another matter, they're pretty friendly, and I suppose they could be adopted out, but I doubt it... and I hate to think they'll just end up getting euthanized, but really, at any shelter, that's more likely than not, sorry to say.

Well. Not that anybody here has any suggestions, I just needed to vent after chasing Real Pop off the porch for the third time. Can't wait to get a bunch of inbred kittens. Ooh boy.

Predictions Follow-up 1

Well, some races are yet to be decided still, so I won't have a full scorecard available for a while... though I'll post one sooner than that. But I think I can generally say that I did pretty bad. Obama won, at least, which means that on the whole I think the country did all right, better than me certainly. But most of the close races I managed to pick incorrectly. I'll be running through the actual list here shortly.

Political Post V: Predictions

You may recall that I ran predictions in 2006, and I plan to do so again, even though I didn't do so great that year...
I'll start with this nifty little graphic I whipped up in about five minutes on Photoshop:


That's my prediction for the presidential race. That amounts to an electoral college vote of 291 to 142, with 105 tossups. I feel pretty good about that map (not least because it indicates an Obama victory). The tossups are another matter.

Now then, having stated the forgoing, here are my predictions, by closing time:
1900 EST:
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) re-elected, defeating Bruce Lunsford; in the second House district (hereinafter referred to by state postal abbreviation and the number, i.e., KY-2), David Boswell (D) defeats Brett Guthrie.
South Carolina: John McCain held to less than 55% of the vote. In SC-1, Henry Brown (R) survives a challenge by Linda Ketner, but is held to less than 52.5% of the vote.
Georgia: First tossup. Barack Obama takes Georgia, though the networks won't call that until after eight-thirty. Also, Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss will go to a December run-off, neither one managing to win 50% of the vote today. In GA-8, Jim Marshall (D) wins re-election; in GA-12, John Barrow (D) also wins re-election.
Indiana: Second tossup. Actually supposed to be closer than Georgia, but I believe John McCain will win with less than 52% of the vote. Mitch Daniels (R) re-elected governor. IN-3, Mark Souder (R) defeats Michael Montagano. In IN-9, Baron Hill (D) defeats Mike Sodrel; for the first time since the districts were redrawn, this district will be represented by the same guy twice in a row.
Virginia: In VA-11, Gerald Connolly (D) defeats Keith Fimian. In VA-5, Virgil Goode (R) defeats Al Weed but is held to less than 55%. In VA-2, Glenn Nye (R) defeats Thelma Drake by less than 1%. For the Senate, it's Mark Warner (D) in a walk.
Vermont: Vermont is quirky. If no candidate for governor gets at least 50%, the state legislature (both houses meeting in closed session) elects a governor (by secret ballot). Because there are three viable candidates this year, it's possible incumbent Jim Douglas (R) won't get 50%, even though Douglas will win a plurality. The Democratic candidate, Gaye Symington, is the former Speaker of the House, and the legislature leans Democratic by a 116-56 margin (with 6 members of the Vermont Progressive Party and 2 independents. I told you Vermont was quirky). Independent candidate Alfred Pollina started the race as the nominee of the Vermont Progressives, but decided he'd rather go alone. He still manages a quarter of the vote in most polls. It's possible for Douglas to win outright but I'm betting against it. As for who the legislature will elect, well, we won't know until January. I'd guess Symington but I'm not calling that a prediction.

1930 EST:
West Virginia: No surprises. No incumbent loses in the House.
Ohio: I'll go ahead and call Ohio for Barack Obama, though this is a tough one. In OH-1, Steve Chabot (R) holds his seat against Dave Driehaus. In OH-2, Mean Jean Schmidt (R) will hold her seat against Victoria Wulsin; this was probably the Dems' last chance to oust Schmidt on their own, and they'll have to count on a GOP primary opponent to knock her off in 2010 or beyond. In OH-15, Mary Jo Kilroy (D) defeats Steve Stivers. In OH-16, John Boccieri (D) will barely edge Kirk Schuring to become the first C-130 driver in Congress.

2000 EST:
Alabama: In AL-2, Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright (D) will defeat Jay Love in an open contest, but it will be very close, and contest has had unpleasant racial tinges; let's hope Montgomery stays quiet whoever wins. In AL-5, somebody named Parker will win. I'll go with Parker Griffith (D) over Wayne Parker, but I would not be surprised if I'm wrong.
Mississippi: I think the GOP will hold both Senate seats here, sorry to say; Thad Cochran and Roger Wicker will both hang on, though Wicker will win by less than 5%. African-American turnout will be lower here than in any other Southern state, which is why Wicker will win. In MS-1, Travis Childers (D) will barely hang on to his seat against Greg Davis.
Oklahoma: Nothing of interest will happen.
Tennessee: No surprises here, either. The real surprise would be Obama losing by less than 10, but I'm not even sure that's going to happen. Tennessee should be more competitive than this and I'm wondering if this is an actual realignment year for the state.
Connecticut: I'd like to point out that I expected governor Jodi Rell to be nominated for VP by the GOP back in 2006, and continued to expect it right up until Sarah Palin in all her Caribou-Barbie (thanks Smittywife!) glory got the nod. Rell actually deserves a place on the national stage, an intelligent Republican woman and quite popular in her Democratic state. I hope and expect to hear more from her in the future. Anyway, in CT-4, Chris Shays, the last House Republican in New England, will somehow manage to hang on, just barely. But he'll run for Chris Dodd's Senate seat in 2010 and the district will go to the Dems.
Delaware: Jack Markell (D) defeats Bill Lee for governor. And somebody has to get appointed to Joe Biden's Senate seat. I won't guess at who, but there is a chance, I suppose, that Biden might manage to convince GOP Congressman Michael Castle to switch parties and accept the appointment. I doubt it though. Castle will probably defeat whoever does get the appointment in the 2010 election.
Washington, DC: No surprises here.
Illinois: In IL-10, Dan Seals (D) will unseat Mark Steven Kirk in his second try. IL-11 is a toughie; Debbie Halvorson (D) should defeat Marty Ozinga for the seat, but she is tied to the unpopular (widely suspected of corruption, as if such a thing could occur in Illinois or, heaven forbid, Chicago) governor. Plus Ozinga has that cool last name going for him. I'm going say IL-11 will go to Marty Ozinga in a very tight race. In IL-14, Bill Foster (D) will hold the seat against Jim Oberweis. In IL-18, Aaron Schock (R) will defeat Colleen Callahan to become the youngest Congressman (at 27). As a caveat to the above, Democrats expect to flip at least two Illinois House seats on Obama's coattails, with IL-10 and IL-11 their top targets. I can see that in IL-10, which is going to go huge for Obama, but Dems would do well not to forget their late leader Tip O'Neill's injunction that all politics is local. It's not, always, but in this case I think voters are going to peg Halvorson as part of the problem in Springfield and deny her the promotion she's seeking.
Maryland: In MD-1, Frank Kratovil (D) will defeat Andy Harris. Harris knocked off the incumbent in the GOP primary, and the incumbent turned around and endorsed Kratovil. If Kratovil does win, the GOP is going to hold an inquest and burn the Club for Growth at the stake; we can only hope.
Massachusetts: No surprises. John Kerry will win another Senate term for some reason, mainly because the state GOP is actually dwarfed by both the Libertarian and Green parties. I just made that up but it sounds plausible, which is scary. You might suspect that eventually, what the Democrats in control of everything in Massachusetts, eventually the people will get sick of it and vote in a Republican just to be contrarian (channeling favorite son John Adams perhaps). Won't be this year, though.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) will hold on to his Senate seat. The real reason the Senate is the "deliberative" body is because all the octogenarians (Lautenberg is 82) move and talk so slowly. I'm kinda pleased about the 27-year-old Congressman (even if he is a Republican, and thus probably a prick), but could we maybe elect a few Senators who were at least in their 40s? Anyway, NJ-3 will go to Democrat John Adler over Chris Myers, and in NJ-7 Democrat Linda Stender will defeat Leonard Lance.
Maine: Susan Collins (R) holds her Senate seat. In ME-1, Chellie Pingree (D) will defeat Charlie Summers.
Florida: Oh God. What will go wrong in Florida this year? Something, I'm sure. I expect Floridians will pass the "defense of marriage" act by a narrow margin, for starters. I think the state will go to John McCain, too, but narrowly, by like half a percent. Won't be called until after nine. There will be recounts in several counties, possibly Hillsborough among them. Not everything will go wrong, though. I do hope in Hillsborough County that Phyllis Busansky will defeat Buddy Johnson for elections supervisor. I am even more hopeful that Bev Harris will defeat the disgusting Doug Belden for tax collector. But it's Hillsborough, and both the idiots will probably be re-elected. Grr. The House should be interesting, though. Until very recently, Florida's retiree mentality extended to Congress, where the districts were so gerrymandered that once elected House members could expect to keep their jobs for 10 or 20 terms until they died in office or were too feeble to continue on; that still goes on in some places, but this year incumbents are going to get the boot. In FL-8, Ric Keller, one of those few Republicans I still trust, will nonetheless be defeated by Alan Grayson. In FL-13, Vern Buchanan (R) will defeat Christine Jennings in their rematch; you may recall this one went on until January last time with Jennings claiming the machines in Sarasota County failed to register hundreds or thousands of votes. She was probably right and, if she'd won, she'd be a shoo-in for re-election. But I think voters will give Buchanan the benefit of the doubt this time... although that said he may be indicted before he can run again in 2010 for shady dealings at his (sound the horns of sarcasm) chain of car dealerships. In FL-16, Tom Rooney (R) (not Ed Rooney, my apologies) will defeat incumbent Tim Mahoney by better than 5%, possibly better than 10. FL-21 and FL-25 are represented by Cuban-American brothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, both Republicans. Both are facing well-funded Cuban-American challengers with strong name ID, and both will be in the closest races they've ever run, as Cuban-American voters start focusing on the economy here at home and less on the Castro embargo. I expect at least one of them to lose; I'll put my chips on Raul Martinez to defeat Lincoln in FL-21, but Mario Diaz-Balart will cling to victory over Joe Garcia. Both of them are tossups so really I'm just flipping a coin here. In FL-22, Ron Klein (D) will easily defeat Allen West. In FL-24, crapulent jerk Tom Feeney (R) will finally get his due as he goes down to defeat against Suzanne Kosmas. That'll teach these bastards to draw districts for themselves when they're in the state House. Finally, in FL-12, incumbent Adam Putnam (R) will defeat Doug Tudor, probably by about 10. I could be wrong; a lot of my friends are fighting hard for Tudor, but the district is just so damn Republican. Also, Putnam will probably run for the Senate seat Mel Martinez is going to abandon in 2010. Putnam intends to run for President, and needs either a Senate term or time in the Governor's office, or both. I will be shocked if Martinez actually runs for re-election in 2010, and I fully expect Putnam to contest the seat, and possibly win. He'll have competition (Connie Mack IV, FL-14; Jeff Miller, FL-1; state house speaker Marco Rubio; Atty Gen Bill McCollum; state senator Jeff Atwater) in the primary but he could win it if the Dems put up a lousy candidate, which they generally do.
Pennsylvania: In PA-3, Kathy Dahlkemper (D) will defeat incumbent Phil English. In PA-10, incumbent Democrat Chris Carney will hang on against Chris Hackett. In PA-11, incumbent Democrat Paul Kanjorski should hang on against Lou Barletta, who is perhaps a bit too conservative for the district, but it's been a bad year for Kanjorski and he's been on the defensive a lot so it wouldn't be a big surprise if he lost. In PA-12, incumbent Democrat John Murtha is going down against Bill Russell. No matter how much you believe it to be true, you simply cannot call your constituents racists and get away with it. Note that if both Murtha and Kanjorski lose, Pennsylvania would probably be the only state in the country where the GOP actually nets seats.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) will defeat John Sununu for his Senate seat, but she will do so unimpressively, by less than 6%, and she'll face a real fight in 2014. In NH-1, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter will edge Jeb Bradley in their rematch.
Missouri: John McCain will narrowly carry Missouri. Jay Nixon (D) will be elected governor. Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes (D) will narrowly defeat Sam Graves in MO-6. In MO-9, Republican Blaine Leutkemeyer will defeat Judy Baker.

2030 EST:
Arkansas: Nothing unusual here, although McCain will probably win by less than 10%.
North Carolina: Okay, these predictions are little better than coin flips at this point, this state is so close; since our local television stations also reach Asheville, we're getting all the advertising from all the races. Ugh. I'm going with Barack Obama, Kay Hagan (D) (Senate), and Pat McCrory (R) (Governor). In NC-8, it'll be Larry Kissell (D) over Robin Hayes by a nose. In NC-11, smelly jerk Pat McHenry (R) will defeat wounded veteran Daniel Johnson by claiming he read the Quran or something equally ridiculous. Really, McHenry is one of those I'd just like to be rid of. There are so many, in both parties. Why do these jerks get elected?

2100 EST:
Arizona: Yes, John McCain is going to win his home state. Whether he does so in 2010 remains to be seen. In AZ-1, Ann Kirkpatrick (D) will defeat Sydney Hay. In AZ-3, GOP Incumbent John Shaddegg will hold on against Bob Lord. In AZ-5, Dem incumbent Harry Mitchell hangs on against Dave Schweikert. In AZ-8, I'm going to pick Republican Tim Bee over incumbent Gabrielle Giffords.
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) for the Senate in a landslide over Bob Schaffer. In CO-4, GOP incumbent Marilyn Musgrave scrapes by over Betsy Markey.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) holds her Senate seat against John Kennedy. In LA-4, they're holding the primary, because they delayed the scheduled primary for Hurricane Gustav. Networks may not cover it at all. The real election is December 6. In LA-6, incumbent Dem Don Cazayoux won a close race earlier this year to fill an open seat. He will not be re-elected, because he is facing two strong competitors, including former primary foe Michael Jackson (no, not that Michael Jackson) running as an independent. Jackson could easily win 20% of the vote, preventing Cazayoux or GOP competitor Bill Cassidy from breaking 50%. Cazayoux could win a runoff, but it's tough to say; there will be a runoff in LA-6 though. And finally we have LA-2, home of rotten blight Bill Jefferson, the man with the money in the freezer and the biggest embarrassment to the Democratic party currently in office (not that there aren't others). Jefferson will actually be re-elected again, like last time mainly because of race; his only real opponent, fellow democrat Helena Morena, is white, in a district that is nearly 2/3 black. Race does play a role in Louisiana politics and Moreno will not unseat Jefferson. The House of Representatives could refuse to seat him, though, and I wish they would... but I doubt it.
Michigan: In MI-7, GOP incumbent Tim Walberg is going down to challenger Mark Shauer. There's not much else going on. Chuck Todd notes that whatever happens in Michigan, state GOP director Saul Anuzis may run for chairman of the Republican National Committee, on a platform to move the GOP's center of power out of the South and away from the culture-warriors. I wish Mr. Anuzis well in what will be a difficult but very important quest.
Minnesota: I'd be a fool to even try to call the Senate election in Minnesota, and since I'm sure I'll be wrong whatever I say, I'm going to predict that Dean Barkley, of the Independence Party, will win, with about 38% of the vote. Minnesota does not require a runoff. In MN-6, Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) will relieve us of Michele Bachmann, thank goodness. In MN-3, I'm going to go along with the Barkley pick and say voters just want change, and they'll elect Ashwin Madia (D) over Erik Paulsen.
Nebraska: It would be a surprise in Nebraska if someone other than a Republican won something. There won't be any surprises in Nebraska.
New Mexico: Tom Udall in a landslide for the Senate over Steve Pearce. Martin Heinrich (D) over Darren White in NM-1. Ed Tinsley (R) over Harry Teague in NM-3.
New York: Oy vey. So many races. NY-29 has Eric Massa (D) over Randy Kuhl. NY-26 will see Chris Lee (R) over Alice Kryzan. And in NY-13 Mike McMahon (D) will win so big people won't remember the other guy's name (it's Stranriere or something).
Rhode Island: No surprises, Democrats walk.
South Dakota: The real race in SD is over a ballot initative about abortion, referred to as IM 11. It bans abortion in all cases except rape, incest, and to preserve the life of the mother (which as I once pointed out in a long post on the subject is so rare that we could assert it would never happen in a state as small as South Dakota). A similar but more restrictive measure failed in 2006; if this passes (I haven't seen polling, so I'm going to say IM 11 will fail), it sets up an immediate challenge to Roe v. Wade. Hm. Interesting, no?
Texas: The only interesting race in Texas is in TX-22, Tom DeLay's former seat, which went to Democrat Nick Lampson in 2006 because DeLay's stench was still on it (and the GOP picked an amazingly bad write-in candidate). Lampson's a good guy but the seat is going back to GOP; Pete Olson will win it.
Wisconsin: In WI-8, Steve Kagen (D) will hold his seat against John Gard.
Wyoming: Believe it or not there's a race in Wyoming for the open House seat. If the incumbent were running for re-election it would be an easy Dem pickup (the incumbent is an idiot) but as an open seat it will probably stay in GOP hands; Cynthia Lummis to win over Gary Trauner, but not by much.

2200 EST:
Iowa: No terribly close races here, but with Obama winning the state in a landslide there could be an upset in IA-4. I still expect GOP incumbent Tom Latham to hold it against Becky Greenwald but we could get a surprise.
Kansas: In KS-2 I think Lynn Jenkins (R) will unseat Nancy Boyda.
Montana: What the heck, Democrats are going to win everything else on the ballot (governor, Senate, House), so Barack Obama will win Montana, too.
Nevada: I think Dina Titus (D) will knock of Jon Porter in NV-3; he's just not personable, and right now Nevadans are wishing they'd elected Titus governor in 2006 instead of scandal-prone Jim Gibbons. Nevada is going for Obama and the novelty of voting for a Democrat will probably extend down the ballot.
Utah: No surprises here.

2300 EST:
California: CA-4 is a tossup; Democrat Charlie Brown could have beat the incumbent, so the incumbent retired and now Brown faces Tom McClintock, who moved up to the district just to run. McClintock is probably ahead. But I'm feeling generous because I watched the Peanuts Halloween special a few days ago and I want Charlie Brown to win. In CA-11, Dem incumbent Jerry McNerney will narrowly hold on to the seat he took from known jerk Richard Pombo in 2006 (his opponent is Dean Andal). The rest of the state holds no big surprises.
Hawai'i: Although reliably democratic at the Presidential level, Hawai'i does sometimes have interesting races down the ballot. Not this year, though.
Idaho: Actually there's a close house race here. The Senate race to succeed Larry Craig (he of the Minneapolis Airport bathroom incident) will go to Republican Jim Risch. But in ID-1, GOP incumbent Bill Sali has failed to endear himself to voters, and even got caught on tv heckling his opponent during a post-debate interview earlier this year. Sali is going down; Walt Minnick will become a one-term house member.
North Dakota: I'm inclined to give this state to John McCain, but who can tell? It's a tough state to poll. Still, it'll probably stay red, but don't go expecting North Dakota to always be reliable for the GOP the next few cycles.
Oregon: As much as I hate to do it, I predict Gordon Smith will lose his Senate seat to Dem challenger Jeff Merkeley. I like Gordon Smith; he has a very good last name, and he's a centrist like me. In a different reality, I could have called him "friend." Anyway, in OR-5, Kurt Schrader (D) will defeat Mike Erickson.
Washington: In WA-8, GOP incumbent Dave Reichert, long popular in the district, will hold on for the second time against Darcy Burner. He won't hold the seat for long as the demographics are trending the Dems' way, but he's well-liked by his constituents and hasn't given them any reason to fire him, which should allow him to ride out any wave. As for the governor's race... 129 votes separated Christine Gregoire (D) from Dino Rossi (R) in 2004. This race might be just as close. To Gregoire's shame she has done little in her term to convince voters that they made the right choice in 2004, so even though Barack Obama will win the state by 10+ points, I predict Dino Rossi will eke out the narrowest of victories.

And finally, at 0100 EST, tomorrow:
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) will oust felonious jerk Ted Stevens at long last, purging the Senate of one of its worst members. Meanwhile, Ethan Berkowitz (D) will defeat Don Young in the House. Furthermore, I predict these predictions won't be proven until the morning.

Well... That's a lot of predictions. 105 of them (or so, I may have miscounted). We'll see how it goes. Based on my numbers, the electoral college vote would be 344 to 194, for Obama. Polls start closing in Kentucky and Indiana in less than 3 hours, and coverage begins at 7. You still have time to vote if you haven't, and you'd better.

Political Post IV

So, what about the big race?

Well. Here's the way it's going to go. Polls close in waves, starting at 7 pm eastern. I'll list all times as eastern because that's where I live but you can do the math if you live elsewhere. I'm also supporting Obama, so I'm discussing this from the perspective of looking for an Obama win. The converse of what I say, though, works if you're hoping for a McCain victory: if I say Obama needs to hold a given state, that means you can hope he doesn't.

At 7, six states will close their polling: Vermont, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Indiana. Vermont is guaranteed for Obama, Kentucky for McCain. South Carolina is about 95% likely to go for McCain as well. That leaves three states. Obama needs to win Virginia here; if he doesn't, it's going to be a rough night (although he can still win the electoral college, but barely). Georgia and Indiana could both be quite close. Indiana is polling almost dead tied right now, while Georgia is polling McCain by a few points. Some commentators are assuming Obama's support in Georgia is being underestimated. I myself agree, although I also don't think Indiana is as close as the polls say; the governor's race is not close, only two house races are close, and at gut level I think Indiana undecideds are going to be more comfortable with McCain.

Here's what to watch for: if Indiana stays close, so close that the networks don't call it by 7:30, or if Obama wins, it's going to be a good night for Obama. He should hold Ohio and Pennsylvania easily in that case, and with both those states the electoral math becomes quite easy.

Likewise, if Georgia stays close or goes to Obama, his strength in southern states has been underestimated. That could imply things down the road in Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Louisiana, and might impact the Mississippi Senate race. (Similarly if Obama is closer than expected in South Carolina—say, within five or six points—then regardless of what they say about Georgia he's outperforming the polling down south and could win a few unexpected states.)

But Virginia is the key state at 7. If it's an easy call for Obama (an easy call means the networks call the race within 15 minutes after poll closing), the electoral math gets easier and, more importantly, it means the polling showing an Obama lead in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania may be accurate. With Virginia, we can assume Pennsylvania will certainly go to Obama and probably Ohio. Virginia thus indicates that Obama is probably doing fairly well. That said, if it's a tough call or it goes to McCain, it will be a tough night.

At 7:30, polls close in Ohio and West Virginia. West Virginia is expected to go to McCain although most pollsters have said they have difficulty polling the state and it could be up for grabs. Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller will win a landslide which may help Obama, or it may not help him at all. Tough to say.

Ohio is the big one at 7:30. If we've already got Indiana for Obama, we should expect Ohio to go that way as well; if we've already got Georgia for Obama, Ohio frankly doesn't matter all that much. If all we have is Vermont and Virginia, winning Ohio means we can breathe a little easier; if all we have is Vermont, Ohio needs to go to Obama to allow any victory at all.

At 8:00, polls close in 16 states, and I submit to you that 8:15 is the earliest we might know who's been elected (barring an unforeseen landslide, which will be apparent before 8 if Obama has both Georgia and Indiana). Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee will go to McCain; Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey will go to Obama. That's all but assured; if any of those states flip to the other candidate it's clear there's a rout going on. That means that at the 8:00 closing there are only five states that matter.

Maine should go to Obama, but Maine divides up its electoral votes by Congressional district, and at one time McCain was actually close in the first district. That was a while ago and they're not contesting the state, but Maine bears watching all the same.

New Hampshire is polling strongly for Obama right now, and the Senate race should go to the Democratic candidate as well. New Hampshire is something of a must-win for McCain; if he doesn't have NH there's just not much chance he can win. It is by no means a must-have for Obama, but the state could be an interesting bellwether of the climate, if it's still a very tight race. If it falls to Obama he should be relatively safe, but if it goes to McCain he still has some life left.

Missouri is polling very tight right now, one of the three closest in the country (the others being Indiana, which closed at 7, and North Carolina, which will close at 8:30). Like Indiana, I have this gut sense that undecideds will be more comfortable with McCain and he'll eke out a narrow win—but in this case the governor's race looks like a win for the Democrat and there are a few close house races. Missouri used to be the classic bellwether, always voted for the winner in every election. Could do that again. Thing is, Missouri is not important for Obama's electoral math, whereas it's huge for McCain. If Missouri stays close late or goes to Obama, Obama fans can be comfortable.

Pennsylvania is the must-win for Obama is this group. There are very few maps where Obama wins without Pennsylvania (and he's got to have Virginia to do it). This is a key state here; unless Obama already has other unlikely states (Georgia, Indiana, Missouri), losing Pennsylvania almost assures a McCain win.

Finally we have Florida, which may or may not be close. Obama doesn't need Florida to win, but he can wrap it up right here at 8:00 with victories in Florida and Pennsylvania. If he wins both of those, he only needs the Kerry states to win. Doesn't even need Colorado or New Mexico, states he's ahead by larger margins in.

Remember I said we could know by 8:15 who's going to win? This is how: if Obama has Florida and Pennsylvania, Obama will be the next President. If McCain has Pennsylvania, McCain will be the next President. If Obama has Pennsylvania and Missouri and either Georgia or Indiana, Obama will be the next President.

Anything else and it's tight, although if Obama has Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, is still his to lose (just not guaranteed or anything).

At 8:30, polls close in Arkansas and North Carolina. Arkansas should be an easy win for McCain, but North Carolina has so many close races it'll take up every minute of news time until 9. Obama does not need North Carolina to win, but McCain does; that said, North Carolina is perhaps Obama's best chance to win a traditional southern state (if we assume Virginia, like Florida, has a mixed-enough population to not be considered traditionally Southern, a notion I would agree with). If Obama has done better than expected in Georgia and South Carolina, he should carry North Carolina.

At 9:00, polls close in 13 states. Wyoming, Texas, and South Dakota should be easy wins for McCain. He should also win Arizona and Louisiana, but recent polling numbers don't look so good there. He should also win Nebraska, although like Maine, Nebraska divides up its electoral votes by congressional district. The Omaha district (I think it's number 2 but it doesn't matter) was actually being contested by the Obama campaign a while back, although recent polling, like that in Maine, seems to indicate that the entire state will be voting the same way. If Obama can win Omaha (that looks funny) the possibility for an electoral tie is reduced to zero… and Obama's probably having a really good night.

Obama should have an easy time in Michigan, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin. He also ought to walk in Minnesota, but Colorado could be close. Still, the 9:00 closings probably won't bring any big surprises. If the candidates win the states they're supposed to it's probably a good night for Obama. Note that if Obama already looks like he's walking to victory—he has Florida and Pennsylvania and one of the tossup states—he could conceivably contest in Arizona or Louisiana. Especially if he's won Georgia already, Louisiana might go to him as well.

There will then be a long break before the next poll closing at ten. Networks will probably dig down to find House and Senate races of interest, close governor's races, and of course any states that are too close to call early on might report a winner. But if Obama has already clearly won the thing (remember that he's got 77 electoral votes coming from the West Coast and Hawai'i) he may very well have the electoral college locked up by nine-thirty. In which case, you should definitely keep watching, because the networks will be desperate to keep their viewers so they'll have to come up with crazy shit to keep you tuned in. That always makes for good TV—remember, it's live!

If we're still undecided by ten, we have five states with poll closings at that hour: Kansas and Utah are slam-dunks for McCain. Iowa should be an easy Obama victory. That leaves Nevada, which is leaning Obama, and Montana, which doesn't get polled often but seems to be trending in his direction of late. If McCain and Obama are still very close, Nevada would be a good pickup for Obama (he's way ahead in early voting, or so they say). But if he manages to win Montana, he's probably already got the thing wrapped up.

California, Hawai'i, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington close at 11, and if you're still awake, the only state that's even close here is North Dakota. Idaho will give four EVs to McCain come hell or high water and the other four states will go to Obama sure as the sun shines in the day. If North Dakota actually turns out to be the linchpin here… damn, that would be a weird night. But if that's the case you'll still be watching TV.

Alaska doesn't close until 1 AM. There's no reason to stay up; you can find out whether Ted Stevens got the boot (let's hope) tomorrow morning. Before the Palin pick, it actually seemed like Alaska might be in play this year, but it's going to go to McCain. We'll know the winner before Alaska's polls close... that must really annoy Alaskans.